New polls hint Clinton surge

New polls hint at Clinton surge

Ron Brynaert Late in the game and against all odds, Senator Hillary Clinton appears to be generating a significant rally. "A bevy of new national polls, plus surveys in Indiana and North Carolina -- which hold key primaries on Tuesday -- suggest that Hillary Clinton is closing the gap since her campaign-saving victory in Pennsylvania last week, and that the controversies dogging Barack Obama are having an impact," Foon Rhee reports for The Boston Globe. The article continues, "In a national Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, Clinton leads Obama 44 percent to 41 percent. The Illinois senator is viewed unfavorably by 42 percent of all voters, up 9 percentage points since February. Clinton's unfavorable rating is still slightly higher than Obama's, but it has dropped slightly. And by 10 percentage points, Democrats now view Clinton as likelier than Obama to beat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. Democrats gave Obama a 4-point edge last month." Rhee cites other polls, including a NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, a national New York Times/CBS poll, and a Quinnipiac University poll, which indicate that Obama has taken a hit from the controversy over his former pastor's remarks. But ones taken over the next week might be even more of a barometer, since some of these polls were taken before Obama's latest speech which attempted to distance him further from Wright. For now, Clinton is beginning to surge in a state that Obama has led for some time now: North Carolina, whose May 6 Democratic primary is set for May 6. Clinton has gained some ground in one poll, while another survey shows the former first lady with a slight lead. Obama leads with 49 percent over Clinton's 42 percent in the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. poll, which was conducted April 28-29 for WRAL-TV in Raleigh and WBTV in Charlotte. It included interviews with 400 likely Democratic primary voters, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 5 percentage points. Obama leads Clinton 63-26 among voters under age 35, while Clinton has a 47-45 edge among voters over 50. He has the support of 87 percent of black voters, while Clinton leads among whites with 62 percent. By party registration, Obama led 48 percent to 43 percent among Democrats and 55-38 among independent or unaffiliated voters. Fifty-five percent said they were looking most for a candidate who "represents change and a new approach," while 36 percent said they wanted someone who "has the right experience." The poll was conducted as news broke that Gov. Mike Easley would endorse Clinton. Meanwhile, according to a InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina, Clinton has "moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29. The survey was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%. The results were: Hillary Clinton: 44%, Barack Obama: 42%, Undecided: 14%." However, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery doesn't think that Clinton is a lock in North Carolina at all. "The shift has come almost entirely from white voters age 45 and over. There was a small drift of African-Americans back towards Clinton, but not so significant as to establish any trend," Towery recently said on Fox. "I believe when all is said and done, Obama will likely carry North Carolina; or if he loses the race, it will be by just a few points." Towery added, "Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina." "If this white vote shift does not erode, given that North Carolina’s white Democratic voters are primarily in the Research Triangle, where education and personal finances are in the top tier for the nation, then I would say this suggests a major shift in all future primaries towards Clinton," said Towery