Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Are we getting an "October Surprise" in 2008?

Are we getting an "October Surprise" in 2008?

Fall can be a time of surprises. No, not the new TV season, but the kind of surprises that come up in the election year.

The official term "October Surprise" came about in 1980 over an alleged plan for a massive military invasion of Iran for rescuing the hostages. And it also applies to the alleged plot that claimed representatives of the Ronald Reagan campaign conspired with Iran to delay the release of 52 Americans held hostage until after the election. But the element of the "October Surprise" has been an issue in numerous elections.

There has been some speculation that we are getting a "November surprise" in that impeachment against Bush and Cheney might get started in November but only after the election.

Then there is Steve Rosenbaum's "September Surprise" that John McCain will announce at the convention in St. Paul that he won't indeed be the Republican Party candidate. Rosenbaum's theory:

"At some point in mid August, John McCain will announce that he has decided that he can not accept his party's nomination for president. The reason will be health-related, and that may turn out to be the truth. Anyone who's seen him on stage these days knows he looks like he's about to keel over. And anyone who's been on a presidential campaign knows the physical demands are grueling and can be a challenge for a young man."
So no matter whether it's September, October, November, are we getting a fall surprise? Will it be an invasion of Iran? Will Bush resign, giving the reins briefly to Cheney, and nominating Condoleezza Rice to replace Cheney? Will it be a replacement for McCain on the ticket?

Let us know what you think: what might the October surprise be in 2008?

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